Time Management Strategy Tms Economics Essay
As an unfastened economic system, the recent planetary fiscal crisis significantly affected Singapore through contagious disease consequence from Singapores top-trading spouses, chiefly Europe, America, and Asia. Singapore ‘s gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) dipped from about 7.7 % to 1.5 % from Q4 2007 to Q1 2008 severally. The dip spiraled into the private residential market ; which, unlike the public residential market, enjoyed minimum AIDSs from the authorities. In effect, companies involved in such undertakings were impacted to and recovered at different grades.
This survey aimed to suggest a clip direction scheme ( TMS ) to outdo extenuate the impacts of GFC with regard to private residential developments in Singapore. Time direction was regarded as behaviours that purpose at accomplishing an effectual usage of clip while executing certain purposive activities.
Method ( s )
Developers, Contractors, and Advisers who have been involved in private residential undertakings in Singapore between 2006 and 2010 were surveyed. There were 18 Survey respondents ( six Developers, four Contractors, two Engineers, and two Quantity Surveyors ) , followed by another four face-to-face Interviews with Top Management of four different companies ( one Developer, one Multi-discipline Consultancy house, and two Contractors ) for elucidation and improved apprehension on the Survey result. Last, two Case Studies, affecting different contracting/contractor houses were undertaken for proof.
Following the Survey, a sum of 10 each of important Impacts and Management Strategies most influenced by TMS were identified. Wilcoxon tests consequence, after the Interviews, showed that the important impacts of the GFC most influenced by TMS include: ( 1 ) slower economic growing, ( 2 ) diminution in the figure of new developments, lifting stock lists, and increasing vacancy rates, and ( 3 ) stalled or declined building activities and investings. On the other manus, while adopted Management Strategies varied, the one most influenced by TMS includes: ( 1 ) Internal transportation, ( 2 ) Looking frontward to chances, which might make added value to the concerns, and ( 3 ) Direct sourcing from providers. Binomial trial consequence, after the Case Studies, besides showed that a combination of Management Strategies most influenced by TMS would outdo extenuate the impacts of a GFC on residential developments in Singapore.
This survey makes of import part sing companies ‘ TMS-influenced Management Strategies during GFC. It besides concludes that as against sing GFC as an absolutely external impact, immediate response by companies during GFC should concentrate on internal attempts with witting TMS. Beyond the top-three graded Impacts and Management Strategies, a list of other Impacts and Management Strategies is besides presented in this survey ; and which can be farther investigated in a hereafter survey.
Glossary of footings
ASEAN Constructors Federation
Asiatic Financial Crisis
Association of southeast asian nations
Association of Southeast Asiatic
Building and Construction Authority
British West Indies
Cardinal Intelligence Agency
Chartered Institute of Building
Consumer price index
Consumer Price Index
Extension of Time
Economic Policy Department
Gross Domestic Product
Global Financial Crisis
Housing Development Board
Institution of Engineers
International finance corporation
International Finance Corporation
International monetary fund
International Monetary Fund
Monetary Authority of Singapore
Ministry of Trade and Industry
National Bureau of Economic Research
Real Estate Developers ‘ Association of Singapore
Singapore Institute of Architects
Singapore Institute of Surveyors and Valuers
Small and Medium Enterprises
Particular Risk-Sharing Enterprises
TMS ( Es )
Time Management Strateg ( y/ies )
United Nations Population Fund
United States Dollar
Chapter 1: Introduction
For developers, seasonably bringing of undertakings is a cardinal to run intoing cash-flow projections to countervailing bank loans and meeting concern ends. Hence, Developers adopt different hazard analysis to pull off and guard against any unfavourable happening. However, fiscal crisis, frequently, can non be anticipated. Jickling ( 2008 ) construed fiscal crisis as a state of affairs when breaks in commercial markets rise to the degree that the flow of recognition to families and concerns is constrained and the existent economic system of goods and services is adversely affected. The bow traveling definition of fiscal crisis begs the inquiry of a timely intercession to extenuate possible impacts. Claessens et Al. ( 2007: 262 ) advanced a new definition for clip direction by sing it as behaviors that purpose at accomplishing an effectual usage of clip while executing certain purposive activities.
It so happened that within the infinite of ten old ages Asia has been batted with two fiscal crises, the first being the Asiatic Financial Crisis ( AFC ) that started in 1997 and the recent being the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) that started in 2007. Singapore, being an unfastened economic system, received maximal impacts from the recent GFC so much so that its gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) plummeted from about 7.7 % to 1.5 % from last one-fourth 2007 to first one-fourth 2008 severally ( Embassy of Israel, 2009 ) . This affected major sectors including the building industry and, more critically, private residential developments. Recently, albeit with a cautiousness, the private residential market appears to be bouncing as exemplified by sizzling gross revenues from January to April 2012 harmonizing to Ong ‘s ( 2012 ) study. However, the 2007 GFC has impacted building houses to differing grades relative to adopted direction schemes, which have seen some building houses emerging less wedged.
Hence, the purpose of this survey is to suggest a clip direction scheme ( TMS ) that best mitigates the impacts of a GFC on residential developments in Singapore. A justification for the purpose is premised on the considerations that developments have implicit in them critical standards runing from: ( 1 ) to finish on agenda and within budget, ( 2 ) to maximise net income and minimise hazards and jobs, and ( 3 ) to use a prudent direction system from start to complete such that jobs are uncovered before they escalate into crisis.
1.1 Background of the Study
Singapore ‘s land country is about 700 sq. kilometer, an country somewhat more than 3.5 times the size of Washington DC ( CIA, 2012 ) . Singapore ‘s entire population in 2011 was about 5.2 million people ( UNFPA, 2011: 119 ) including the migrated people. Singapore is recognized as the trade hub of the South and East Asiatic Regions. For the past decennary, Singapore remains economically strong until the 2007 GFC. Although the state besides experienced the problems in the 1997 AFC, the impact of 2007 GFC is concluded as the event in which constituted the hardest hit to the state ( Abao, 2011 ) since its independency on 9 August 1965.
While the 1997 AFC created a great splash in different states within Asia, it appeared that states such as Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong every bit good as other Asiatic parts portions the same consequence from the 1997 AFC due to the contagious disease consequence of the crisis. However, in Singapore the consequence of the crisis was received by the sectors that contribute significantly in the GDP ( MAS, 1999 ) as typified by Figure 1.
Figure 1: Singapore ‘s GDP by Industry Sectors in 1997
Beginning: MAS ( 1999 )
Before the 2007 GFC, Singapore had steady growing, which is linked to the building investing within the public sector therefore created addition in domestic demand. In promotion, based on Figure 2, there is a positive indicant of growing in the building industry despite a little bead in 2007-2008, which is attributable to the GFC ( Abao, 2011 ) .
Figure 2: Construction Growth in Singapore
Beginning: Abao ( 2011 )
Therefore, we can state that building continues to play a cardinal function in the Singapore economic system. Following the 1997 AFC, Singapore recovered in the succeeding old ages through fiscal policies ( e.g. exchange rate, flexible direction, etc. ) ( MAS, 1999 ) and aggressive building investings ( Abao, 2011 ) . In add-on, foreign companies continued keeping the Singapore building industry high due to rigorous quality control, which could besides restrict the hazards in the building undertakings ( ACF, 2004 ) . Small admiration Singapore besides ranked 1st among 183 economic systems on the easiness of making concern ( World Bank and IFC, 2012: 6 ) .
Different sectors of the authorities and concern participants, foreign every bit good as local, had besides created the feeling that the building industry created a degree, which can back up all industry participants ( ACF, 2004 ) . The portion of GDP by the building industry in Singapore was steadier as compared to the other BWI ( British West Indies ) states. Based on Figure 3, Singapore ‘s building industry gives a comparative part in the entire GDP of the state, exhibiting same growing form as the GDP growing.
Figure 3: Singapore ‘s Construction Industry Contributions to GDP
Beginning: Abao ( 2011 )
Impacts of GFC on Other Asiatic Countries and in Global Construction Industry
However, with the 2007 GFC, other neighbouring Asiatic states have besides faced troubles, which similarly affected their building industry. Japan is considered both the universe ‘s 3rd largest economic system and building market ( behind China and the United States ) . So, it is natural to presume that the impact of GFC can decelerate down its economic growing through building industry. Following the 2007 GFC, Garcia ( 2011 ) opined that Japan ‘s building market in the wining 10 old ages would reflect the state ‘s overall hapless economic growing, which is expected to turn around 1 per centum or less.
Similarly, while the Korean economic system showed a strong recovery gauging from the domestic demands and exportation to propose a positive mentality, the gait towards the economic development might be slow. To confirm the bow traveling, the after-effects of the 2007 GFC, comparatively, were manifested in the county ‘s building industry in the first half of 2010. There was a little autumn in activity in building concern due to the lethargy in civil ( substructure ) building and residential edifices. By and big, Korea ‘s building industry appeared to be in the fast recovery due to the growing in investing and the addition in the economic activity ( Yoon, 2010 ) .
The 2007 GFC besides impacted Hong Kong, nevertheless, like what Korea experienced, Hong Kong besides experienced durable recession in 2007. This resulted in the negative mentality in the substructure sectors, therefore stagnating the programs and advancement towards substructure development. This besides affected the employment degree for the building industry. However, in 2009, there was a bundle of economy-boosting substructure undertakings such as the edifice of Expressway which revealed strong recovery. This is besides matched with the authorities ‘s series of economy-boosting policies and investing to go on the development ( Liang, 2011 ) .
In the instance of China, it appears that the state had a fast recovery from the planetary crisis. China and United States are the largest building markets in the universe with a planetary building portion of 15 % and 14 % severally. It is assumed that China will shortly catch the US in good position to go the universe ‘s largest economic system within the span of 5-7 old ages. In portion, this is due to rapid growing originating from the minimum effects of the GFC in 2007 ( Garcia, 2011 ) . Nevertheless, mounting concerns over China ‘s recent worsening growing ( Rabinovitch, 2012a ) every bit good as audacious investings ( Rabinovitch, 2012b ) might every bit good hold triggered Singapore ‘s indicant that its growing prognosis of 1-3 % for 2012 was based on the three premises that: ( 1 ) no recession in US, ( 2 ) no important escalation of the Eurozone crisis, and ( 3 ) no hard-landing in China ( MAS, 2012 ) .
Probes of the impacts of the recent GFC in the building industry in Singapore and some of the other Asiatic states have focused on the post-effects of the crisis. Previous surveies, as before cited, have tended to see the impacts of GFC ( including the recent 1 ) and how these can be mitigated after happenings. Likewise, old surveies have focused on financial policies and economic policies by the authorities as chief Panaceas to extenuating fiscal crises.
Yuen et Al. ‘s ( 1999 ) survey suggested that the tendencies in the building industry are hard to foretell because of the fluctuations in footings of costs and efficiency in building by nature. This could every bit good be attributed to a ground that fiscal crisis tends to be taken as a norm for the building industry ( in other words, an “ external factor ” ) without any efforts at look intoing pro-active internal schemes by building houses to extenuate its impacts. Nevertheless, in the building industry, clip direction scheme ( TMS ) applied tactfully to the prevailing direction attacks during a GFC could function to extenuate the impacts of such crisis.
Past surveies on the response schemes by building houses during the recent fiscal crisis have focused on line of lifes provided through authorities intercession, normally financial policy and stimulus disbursement. Impacts of TMS on the adopted schemes by building houses have yet to be investigated, specifically for private residential developments in Singapore.
The exasperation of the recent GFC has besides been blamed on states and houses non seeking timely intercessions, which fuelled guesss with attendant unfavourable contagious disease effects. Therefore, an probe of this presupposition is of import particularly for Singapore, which now has already been batted with two major crises within a decennary.
Study purpose and aims
The purpose of this survey is to suggest a clip direction scheme that best mitigates the impacts of a GFC on residential developments in Singapore. The specific aims include to:
Investigate the important impacts of GFC on private residential developments in Singapore with regard to clip direction schemes ( TMSes ) ;
Identify adopted important direction schemes to extenuate the impacts of GFC on private residential developments in Singapore with regard to TMSes ; and
Propose the most effectual TMSes to outdo mitigate possible impacts of GFC on private residential developments in Singapore.
This survey hypothesizes that: ( 1 ) a TMS is a important mitigating factor during a GFC, and ( 2 ) when the most important TMS is applied during a GFC, the impact ( s ) is/are best mitigated.
This survey deals with private residential developments in Singapore during the recent planetary fiscal crisis ( GFC ) , which started in 2007. In effect, responses from building houses ( Developers/Clients and/or Undertaking Managers, Building Contractors, Consultants i.e. Architects, Civil & A ; Structural Engineers and Quantity Surveyors ) in Singapore are considered. These are discussed in item under Section 4.2
Study significance and parts
This survey investigates clip direction towards the bringing of residential developments during a GFC. It is important in that it investigates how an internal scheme could be adopted to outdo extenuate the possible impacts of an external influence. By so making, it appraises and brings to the bow the behavioural facets of houses ‘ extenuating steps during a GFC and the likely deductions.
Again, TMS has, frequently, been accorded a de facto and cursory position so much so that during a GFC, accent on the economic sciences of the bing direction theories recede TMS into the background doing its direct impacts hard to measure. Therefore, this survey contributes by besides look intoing the possible impacts of the influences of TMS on bing response schemes adopted by building houses during a GFC.
Structure of the study
The survey study is structured into six Chapters. The present Chapter 1 introduces the survey and its cardinal dogmas. It gives brief background of the GFC and TMS every bit good as justification, purpose and aims, range and parts of the survey.
Chapter 2 reappraisals fiscal crisis ; compares the 2007 GFC and 1997 AFC, causes of the 2007 GFC, impacts and adopted extenuating schemes, with accent on Singapore and its private residential market ; and TMS every bit good as its relevancy to building.
Chapter 3 expounds and justifies the identified cognition spread, which crystalizes into preparation of the survey conceptual model, treatments on the underpinnings, and so the two hypotheses the survey will be proving.
Chapter 4 discusses the survey methodological analysiss, which includes the research strategies/designs, trying and choice of survey elements, methods of informations aggregation for each of the aims, and treatments of the instrumentality every bit good as proof.
Chapter 5 expounds on the primary informations collected, analyzes the information, and trials for the two hypotheses. This is followed by farther treatments on the findings and observations of the survey with regard to bing theories and old surveies.
The last Chapter 6 makes decisions on the survey with regard to the purpose and aims set out to carry through. It raises outstanding issues, high spots the restrictions of the survey, and makes recommendations for future surveies.
Chapter 2: Reappraisal of Literature
2.1 Global fiscal crisis ( GFC )
Jickling ( 2008 ) argued that there is no precise definition of the term fiscal crisis, nevertheless, a common position has it as a state of affairs when breaks in commercial markets rise to the degree that the flow of recognition to families and concerns is constrained and the existent economic system of goods and services is adversely affected. Economists have officially defined recession, another word synonymous with fiscal crisis, as two back-to-back quarters of negative growing GDP ( Davis, 2008 ) . Conversely, the Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER ) has instead viewed recession as a important diminution in economic activity spread across the economic system, enduring more than a few months, usually seeable in existent GDP, existent income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail gross revenues ( NBER, 2008 ) .
By and big, Davis ( 2008 ) submitted that both places are accurate in that they typify the same economic consequences ( i.e. negative ) . The NBER commission suggested that a recession begins when the economic system reaches a extremum of activity and ends when the economic system reaches its trough, and so posited that December 2007 was the peak month ( in the U.S. ) after finding that the subsequent diminution in economic activity was big plenty to measure up as a recession ( NBER, 2008 ) . Within a decennary, investors have had to cope with two fiscal crises, the first been the AFC and so the 2nd, being the recent GFC. The AFC foremost started in July 1997 in Thailand following the devaluation of the Thai Baht, which, afterwards, spilled over to other adjacent Asiatic states ( Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore ) doing an economic downswing that affected states in other parts of the universe, including Latin America and Europe ( Low and Lim, 2000 ) . On the other manus, following NEBR ‘s ( 2008 ) place that the U.S. economic system reached a extremum in December 2007 therefore taging the beginning of a recession, it has been held that the GFC started following the U.S. recession ( Gascon, 2009 ; Jickling, 2010: 3-4 ; Meyn and Kennan, 2009 ) . Meyn and Kennan ( 2009 ) besides compared and contrasted the AFC and GFC as summarized in Table I.
Table I: Differences and similarities of GFC 2007 and AFC 1997
Worsening ingestion and loss of assurance in the market, with attendant negative effects on demand for exports and their footings of trade.
Due to planetary dimension of the GFC, the options for market variegation are really limited unlike the AFC, which was regional.
By and large, currencies have tended to devaluate vis-a-vis the USD and depending on the type of merchandise and the competition state of affairs.
During the AFC, it was by and large expected that the export sector would retrieve quickly as a consequence of the rough currency depreciations vis-a-vis prima currencies.
The deficit of trade finance ( handiness and cost of recognition for export finance ) was a terrible job.
A terrible job peculiarly for fabricating industries during the AFC, nevertheless, it affected many houses during the GFC and depending on their value ironss.
Beginning: Meyn and Kennan ( 2009 )
2.1.1 Causes of the GFC
Amidst myriad of surveies on the causes of the GFC, Jickling ‘s ( 2010 ) survey provides a concise reappraisal of identified 26 causes of the GFC, which include: ( 1 ) imprudent mortgage loaning, ( 2 ) lodging bubble, ( 3 ) planetary instabilities, ( 4 ) securitization, ( 5 ) deficiency of transparence and answerability in mortgage finance, ( 6 ) evaluation bureaus, ( 7 ) mark-to-market accounting, ( 8 ) deregulatory statute law, ( 9 ) shadow banking system, ( 10 ) non-bank tallies, ( 11 ) off-balance sheet finance, ( 12 ) government-mandated subprime loaning, ( 13 ) failure of hazard direction systems, ( 14 ) fiscal invention, ( 15 ) complexness, ( 16 ) homo infirmity, ( 17 ) bad computing machines theoretical account, ( 18 ) inordinate purchase, ( 19 ) relaxed ordinance and purchase, ( 20 ) recognition default barters, ( 21 ) nonprescription derived functions, ( 22 ) fragmented ordinance, ( 23 ) no systemic hazard regulator, ( 24 ) short-run inducements, ( 25 ) tail hazards, and ( 26 ) black swan theory.
An overview of these identified causes reflect that they are multi-faceted and, in the wide sense, on the one manus, both systemic and structural every bit good as proficient and non-technical on the other manus. Usman ‘s ( 2010 ) history of outstanding events of the GFC buttresses the rapid spread of the recent crisis, which although began in the U.S. , spread to the European states and to the remainder of the universe.
2.1.2 Impacts of the GFC on the Global Economy
NBER ( 2008 ) noted that a recession is a wide contraction of the economic system non confined to one sector, and therefore requires economy-wide steps. Meyn and Kennan ( 2009: 44 ) concluded that the GFC affected developing states ‘ trade through monetary value and volume effects, the gravitation of which depends on their trade construction and markets every bit good as their economic and institutional conditions, which determine possible responses. Garcon ( 2009 ) analyzed the impacts of the recent GFC based on diminution in: ( 1 ) industrial production, ( 2 ) existent income, ( 3 ) employment tendencies, and ( 4 ) existent retail gross revenues ; and so submitted that it is the most terrible in the past 40 old ages. Davis ( 2008 ) considered the impacts of the GFC on big concerns along the dimensions of: ( 1 ) falling stocks and slouching dividends, ( 2 ) recognition damage and bankruptcy, ( 3 ) employee lay-offs and benefits decreases, ( 4 ) cuts to quality of goods and services, and ( 5 ) reduced consumer entree ; and so argued the impacts would be similar for the little concerns.
Quantitatively, Schifferes ( 2008 ) reported on the International Monetary Fund ‘s ( IMF ) warning, in April 2008, that possible losingss from the recognition crunch could make USD1 trillion as the losingss were distributing from sub-prime mortgage assets to other sectors, such as commercial belongings, consumer recognition, and company debt. Greece ‘s bad exposure to the crisis, entirely, amounted to about USD414 billion in national debt ( Sanchita, 2010 ) . Spain continued to stagger in the heat of the GFC as exemplified by the European Union ‘s ( EU ) backup for the state ‘s a‚¬100 billion bank bailout program and a farther annual extension for the state to accomplish a budget shortage of 3 % in July 2012 ( TODAY, 2012 ) . While a position as it that the GFC is non to be compared with the Great Depression as typified by Elliot ( 2012 ) , the latter continued to be a fiscal metaphor for the recent GFC as typified by Raghuramm ( 2012 ) . Two facts on the 2007 GFC that needs to be tackled, harmonizing to Raghuramm ( 2012 ) , includes weaker overall demand for goods and services every bit good as lifting inequality both in Europe and the US.
In Asia, Usman ( 2010 ) besides noted the impacts of the GFC on China, India, and Pakistan, which in specific was affected in the: ( 1 ) fiscal sector, ( 2 ) capital flows and workers ‘ remittals, ( 3 ) trade good monetary values and trade, and ( 4 ) external funding. The recent GFC affected East Asia less with respects to its fiscal systems and more with its economic growing through export and investing channel so much that economic growing for most East Asiatic economic systems slowed well in 2008 and 2009 ( Chia, 2010: 4 ) . Worldwide, residential and non-residential building disbursement dwindled by about 10 % and 5 % severally and attributable to the fact that recoveries from recessions associated with fiscal crises tend to bring forth small occupation growing, mostly because of the dependance on bank funding of employment-intensive sectors, such as building ( Ruddock and Ruddock, 2011 ) . Resilient as the Chinese economic system ab initio posed, its GDP dipped to 7.6 % from 8.1 % from first one-fourth to 2nd one-fourth 2012, a last growing rate since 2nd one-fourth 2009 ( Yu, 2012 ) . The dip, through ripple effects, has affected investings in existent estate development, which spiraled into many related industries such as building, raised inquiry on insistent building and omnipresent waste against investing efficiency, and audacious stimulation bundle ( Yu, 2012 ) .
2.2 Impacts of the GFC on Singapore
Singapore was the first among the Association of Southeast Asian ( ASEAN ) state to fall into recession due to its unfastened economic system ( Embassy of Israel, 2009 ) , therefore characterized by heavy dependance on foreign trade, which have been adversely affected following diminution in planetary demand as a consequence of the GFC. In effect, trade and investings worsened, sweeping and retail sectors every bit good as conveyance and storage sectors were affected, and fabrication slowed down due to falling demand in the developed economic systems, which spiraled into the fiscal sectors due to weak fiscal markets and recognition growing. Thus, in 2008, the Singapore economic system, by estimation, grew by about 1.5 % , compared with 7.7 % in 2007, with the building industry besides dunking to 17.3 % from 20.3 % in 2007 ( Embassy of Israel, 2009 ) . Lee ( 2009 ) , in a study for the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry ( MTI ) , besides submitted that the economic downswing hit both concluding and intermediate demand for Singapore ‘s exports, with a dip in imports from Singapore ‘s cardinal markets ( notably, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and China ) . Inter alia, Hong Kong ‘s economic growing spiraled down to 2.5 % in 2008 from 6.4 % in 2007 ( Zhang and Tong, 2009 ) .
Compared to the past recessions, the current crisis saw Singapore ‘s exports falling more aggressively, as it is more widespread coupled with Singapore ‘s non-oil domestic exports and non-oil re-exports at the same time worsening aggressively ( Lee, 2009 ) . The Economic Policy Department ( EPD ) of the Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ) described it as the deepest recession since independency ( EPD, 2009a: two ) . Hong Kong ‘s negative 2.5 % as at the last one-fourth of 2008, the worst since 1999, echoed crisp diminutions in China, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore ( Zhang and Tong, 2009 ) . Similarly, Goh and Lim ( 2010 ) and Overholt ( 2010 ) investigated the impacts of the GFC on Malaysia and China severally. Nevertheless, Chia ( 2010: 4 ) noted that Singapore was worst away due to its drastic plunging in GDP between 2007 and 2008. The first strong indicant of impact of economic downswing among SMEs in Singapore was approximately 20 % dip in the figure of companies that experienced speed uping turnover growing, another 45 % sing zero growing and 20 % with declined turnover ( Fernandez, 2010 ) . Overall, Singapore witnessed a 1.3 % contraction in GDP in 2009 due to the GFC and entire building demand dropped to USD21 billion in 2009 from the record high of USD35.7 billion in 2008 ( Economics Research Department – BCA, 2010 ) .
Still staggering in the impacts of the GFC, the MAS, in July, revised its 2012 consumer rising prices prognosis for Singapore to 4 % – 4.5 % from 3.5 % – 4.5 % seemingly following Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) rising prices rate lifting from 5.0 % to 5.3 % year-on-year from May to June severally ( Channel News Asia, 2012 ) . While the likeliness of a dip in Singapore ‘s economic growing to below 1 % for 2012 is premised on recession in the US, important escalation of the Eurozone crisis and a difficult landing for China ‘s economic system, MAS ‘s place suggested that the state ‘s fiscal system is robust plenty to wade the storm ( Channel News Asia, 2012 ) . MAS ( 2012 ) remained poised that nucleus rising prices would go on to travel down and near 2 % by terminal 2012, and within the scope of 1.7 % historical norm.
2.2.1 Impacts of GFC on private residential development in Singapore
The out-performing strength of the Singapore private residential market has long surprised market analysts to the extent the roar sparked arguments that appraisal of demand became imperative ( Ong and Chew, 1996 ) . Nevertheless, in the aftermath of the recent GFC, Wee ( 2008 ) flagged a diminution in private residential belongings monetary values and minutess with a looming weakening of the overall building demand. Earlier assessment by the GFC by the Embassy of Israel ( 2009: 8 ) suggested that the private sector in Singapore could be weighed down more to a great extent by the recognition crunch and lower external demand. However, Singapore ‘s private sector building demand was so significantly weakened by the GFC ( Economics Research Department – BCA, 2010 ) . Singapore ‘s economic recession, following the GFC, dampened market assurance and resulted in a dip in private sector building demand to USD7.5 billion in 2009 from USD20.2 billion in 2008, with residential building demand dropping by about half to USD3.5 billion in 2009 ( Economics Research Department – BCA, 2010: 6 ) . In effect, commercial building shrank from USD8.3 billion in 2008 to USD1.3 billion in 2009 compounded by diminutions in tenancy rates and rental values among other factors.
Heng ( 2009 ) subscribed that the GFC is unprecedented with exceeding facets head of which has culminated into covering with the bursting of multiple, overlapping bubbles chiefly the lodging bubble, the family recognition bubble, and the ingestion bubble. Crisis affects: ( 1 ) proprietor funding of the undertakings ( private and public ) , and ( 2 ) contractor financing through deductions on command and contract methods every bit good as hard currency flows ( pre-bid disbursals and bonds ) as exemplified by Moavenzadeh ‘s ( 2009 ) survey on building finance vis-a-vis the impacts of a GFC. The recent GFC has seen to a changeless and witting mention to the impacts that the recognition crunch is holding on the planetary economic system, belongings monetary values, stock market values and consumer assurance ( Adair et al. , 2009: 3 ) , assurance and trust being two ingredients critical to a market.
While the direct impacts of the bow departures could non be readily appraised in Singapore, the MAS upheld that important hazards loom over the planetary economic mentality, peculiarly in the advanced economic systems and that, in effect, regional economic systems ( including Singapore ) would besides see slower growing alongside the downswing in external demand ( MAS, 2011 ) . Empirically, compared to the 1997 AFC that Singapore had a comparatively little but noticeable possible end product growing diminution, the recent GFC has lent Singapore to registering the largest possible end product growing decrease explained by big dependance on exports and foreign capital flows ( Park et al. , 2010: 9 ) . Locally, revival in private belongings by developers continued to be ephemeral, in portion, due to purchasers ‘ increasing caution, therefore go forthing inquiries on a steadier province ( Ong, 2012 ) . Small admirations that Elliot ( 2012 ) subscribed that assurance across webs of fiscal establishments and commercial companies that the worst was non about to go on is a key to recovery from a major crisis.
2.2.2 Other possible impacts of the GFC
By and big, from other writers ( BWI, 2008 ; Davis, 2008 ; Frei, 2010 ; Hlaing et al. , 2008 ; Ngiam, 2000 ; UNCTAD, 2009 ; Ruddock and Ruddock, 2010 ; Watanantachai, 2009 ; Wee, 2008 ; Zhang and Tong, 2009 ) , a sum-up of other possible impacts of the GFC on private residential developments in Singapore is presented in Table II. A sum of 37 impacts of GFC, arranged in three columns, have been identified. This is to be farther investigated on the field among the industry practicians, after which a more robust decision on the important impacts in Singapore can so be made.
Table II: Other Possible Impacts of the GFC on private residential developments in Singapore
Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis
Adverse loan refunds ( high involvement rate )
Decline in the figure of new developments, lifting stock lists, and increasing vacancy rates.
Subcontractor/supplier generated hazards
Stalled or declined building activities and investings
Cost and handiness of energy resources and lifting stuff costs
Falling stocks and slouching dividends ( diminution in stock monetary value and dividends to stockholders )
High rate of turnover and absenteeism
Handiness of investing and development funds/lack of funding
Recognition damages and bankruptcy ( histories receivable impacting debt service and farther adoption )
Fear of loss from unsold or unoccupied units ( provide overhang )
Concerns over security of payments
Employee lay-offs and benefit decreases
Attendant leaner concern operations from fright of bankruptcy
The chief challenge is to remain in concern
Cuts to quality of goods and services ( from recession-impacted makers )
Delaies in building completion and multiplier effects on construction-related sectors
Unemployment ( from lay-offs and retrenchment )
Decreased consumer entree ( from reduced advertizement and selling )
Currency contagious disease ( i.e. the Euro crisis affected Singapore dollars )
Increased challenges for the undertaking squad particularly the measure surveyors
Reduced backing ( from reduced new stocks from developers and purchasers unavailability to mortgages.
Falling plus monetary values ( declined private belongings monetary value index )
Drop in domestic demand due to cut down local consumer disbursement
Rise in building costs ( stuff, forces, equipment and local supply restraints )
Weaker fiscal and corporate sectors ( non-performing loans ( NPLs ) of local Bankss )
Decline in investings in edifice and building activities and fixed capital ( e.g. machinery, equipment ) .
Economic downswing, political instability and high competition ( from environment )
Slower economic growing ( spill-over effects of the Euro crisis and holds in building activities by and large )
Client ‘s fiscal stableness
Payment hold from client and excess disbursal for client
Impacts on exports ( international participants and export composings e.g. stuffs )
Delay in presenting/addressing jobs
Unable to entree beginnings of financess ( from fiscal institute )
Effectss on trade good monetary values ( i.e. lodging monetary values )
Lacks in contract papers ( 3rd party liability, challenge declaration )
Insufficient financess and limited capital and hard currency flow deficit
Low monetary value command to acquire undertakings ( from selling )
2.3 Responses to the GFC in Singapore and Time direction
Lim ( 2009 ) investigated the GFC every bit good as crisis direction by US, China and Singapore, which employed advanced anti-recessionary steps ( chiefly, Job Credit Scheme and Special Risk-Sharing Initiative ( SRI ) ) and strong economic basicss. Heng ( 2009 ) construed Singapore ‘s responses in term of inter-bank money market and flow of recognition from Bankss to corporations. The former aimed to keep USD liquidness, while the latter was to co-share hazards ( with Bankss through SRI and SMEs through Jobs Credit Scheme ) . However, at the corporate degree, Fernandez ( 2010 ) suggested that Singapore ‘s top acting companies rode out of the GFC due to: ( 1 ) their strong concern basicss, ( 2 ) ability to prehend chances while maintaining a healthy capital construction, and ( 3 ) a diversified portfolio, which added to their stableness. Furthermore, albeit Singapore ‘s crisp contraction in economic activity in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, building remained the lone industry with a robust growing, which was attributed to a steady watercourse of private residential and non-residential undertakings in the grapevine ( EPD, 2009b: 10 ) .
Hence, while it would do to state that attempts by the authorities cushioned the impacts of the GFC, private residential developments, under private investors have besides employed some clip direction schemes to leverage on the attempts by the authorities to sit out of the GFC as noted by Fernandez ( 2010 ) . Again, granted that the AFC 1997 is different from the current GCF as besides acknowledged in this survey earlier ( mention to Table 1 ) , nevertheless, schemes deployed by Singapore building houses for the current GFC would be similar as found in Low and Lim ‘s ( 2000 ) survey. Hence, as suggested in the decision by Low and Lim ( 2000 ) , behavior and strategic responses of building houses to the fiscal crisis could be explained by bing direction theories. Similarly, as found by Fernandez ( 2010 ) , non all the SMEs were able to endure off the impacts of the GFC, with 17 % and 8.4 % in the High Risk recognition evaluation in 2009 and 2010 severally. This survey opines that the differences could be attributable to clip direction schemes.
Claessens et Al. ‘s ( 2007 ) reappraisal of 32 empirical surveies on clip direction conducted between 1982 and 2004, doing it, arguably, the most comprehensive on the discourse, developed a new definition for clip direction as behaviours that purpose at accomplishing an effectual usage of clip while executing certain purposive activities. Claessens et Al. ( 2007: 262 ) buttressed that the definition high spots that the usage of clip is non an purpose in itself and can non be pursued in isolation, but instead focused on some purposive activity, which includes: ( 1 ) clip assessment behaviours, ( 2 ) planning behaviours, and ( 3 ) monitoring behaviours. Small admiration that Fernandez ‘s ( 2010 ) suggested five lessons for SMEs in Singapore all bear on clip direction ( track growing public presentation ; build/store up resources to buffer future crisis ; capablenesss, competency and civilization for planning, aspire for speed uping growing stage ; and pull off recognition quality ) . Conversely, the impression of clip direction is adopted otherwise ; if non, as frequently the instance, quickly, by organisations during a fiscal crisis state of affairs irrespective of their cognition of or on direction theories and this would impact the bringing of a undertaking.
2.3.1 Time direction in building
Bowen et Al. ( 2002: 48 ) upheld, albeit different perceptual experiences, that clients, contractors and advisers often see timely completion of a building undertaking as a major standard of undertaking success likewise and posited that client ‘s aims could be achieved through a direction attempt that recognizes the mutuality of clip, cost and quality. It follows so that albeit the unanticipated nature of a GFC, the success degree of a building undertaking as good depends on the ability of the undertaking participants to cover with surpris