Capital market inefficiency

Abstract on weak signifier of market efficiency

Trial of the January consequence

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Capital MARKET INEFFICIENCY

Capital market efficiency is a topic of many surveies with academicians stating that markets are efficient. But in existent life, there are many cases to demo that markets do act inefficiently and are a instance of weak signifier of inefficiency. One major observation to turn out that the markets are inefficient is the happening of bubbles and clangs. Stock markets have gone through major clangs of 1929, 1987 and early seventiess. Stock markets have besides seen major bubbles like in late ninetiess.

During the late phases of both bubbles and clangs, stock monetary values are usually driven far off from what basicss would order. As the terminal of bubble attacks, investors purchase stocks at monetary values with no respect to the underlying value. During late 1990s, the stock monetary values of engineering stocks, peculiarly cyberspace companies, rose to dizzy highs. The portion monetary values of cyberspace companies were linked to the figure of website hits and non on the net incomes or possible net incomes. But same companies during market clang are available at really low monetary values. This shows the irrational behavior of investors.

Another manner to turn out weak signifier inefficiency is to discredit the premises behind strong and semi-strong signifier of inefficiencies. The most of import assumption/characteristic of strong-form efficiency is that portion monetary values reflect all information about the company and investors can non do unnatural net incomes. But there are legion cases where some investors have earned unnatural returns over the market systematically over a long clip frame. Warren Buffett is the premier illustration of this. His house and investings have earned more than the market returns over decennaries. Though person gaining unnatural return can be argued as fortune, but the consistence of this over a long clip is hard to disregard. Investors like Warren Buffett have performed better than market by placing stocks where the market rating doesn’t justify the basicss of the company. This contradicts the premise that portion monetary values reflect all information about the company.

Semi-strong signifier of market efficiency relies on the belief that portion monetary values adjust within a little and finite sum of clip and no extra returns can be earned by merchandising on handiness of information. Almost everyday we see illustrations of portion monetary values interrupting this premise. Whenever a company announces a diminution in trade environment and/or net incomes which were unexpected, its portion monetary value takes a whipping on the twenty-four hours of proclamation. The autumn in portion monetary value is important but non complete within the first hr. Many times the monetary value falls next twenty-four hours besides because many investors don’t receive information every bit shortly as company announces it. They besides take clip to analyze and move on it. The clip derived function in having information is used by many financess and investors to gain extra returns.

Another celebrated illustration of the inefficient markets is the being of January consequence. Investors have made unnatural returns in a statistically important figure of old ages during January. Though this tendency is non so widely existing today but its continuance over a long period indicates the presence of tendencies contradictory to premises of efficient market theory.

JANUARY EFFECT

Methodology

Efficient market hypothesis is based on the fact that investors can’t do unnatural returns from a tendency. The January consequence – unnatural returns in January compared to the remainder of the twelvemonth – can be proved if portions and/or indices show unnatural returns in January in statistically important figure of old ages.

To turn out the being of the January consequence, we look at two different monetary value motion indexs. First is the market index to demo the presence of the January consequence in the overall market. In this survey, we take FTSE 100 index as the representative of the UK stock market. FTSE 100 is the index of the top 100 companies in footings of market capitalization. The 2nd index is the motion in portion monetary values of six companies in FTSE 100 index. The companies were selected at random with a position to cover as many sectors as possible.

Market index is a better index of being of the January consequence as the single companies might be traveling through unnatural alterations in January months. Such alterations include amalgamation and acquisitions, failure of their largest clients, etc. These alterations could hold a important impact and hence distort consequences. On the other manus usage of market index diversifies systematic hazard and hence is a better index of the January consequence.

To turn out the being of the January consequence for both FTSE 100 and single companies, we need two sets of informations – returns in January and one-year returns. We use month terminal index degree and portion monetary values for ciphering the above returns.

For FTSE 100 index, returns in January are calculated by spliting the index degree at the terminal of January by the index degree at the terminal of old December. Annual returns are calculated by spliting terminal December index degree by the index degree at the terminal of old December. The per centum alteration in index degree shows the additions or losingss in that twelvemonth. The mean monthly returns are obtained by spliting one-year returns by 12.

For single companies, the process for obtaining monthly and one-year returns is same except that the index degree is replaced by companies’ portion monetary values.

If monthly return in January is greater than mean monthly return in that twelvemonth in a important figure of old ages, it indicates the presence of the January consequence. As there are 12 months in a twelvemonth, for markets to be efficient, January returns should non be more than mean monthly returns in 1/12Thursdayold ages. This survey covers the period from Jan 2001 to Dec 2006 – six old ages. So if January consequence is found in more than 1 twelvemonth, so January consequence does still be.

To look into whether the returns in January are statistically higher than mean monthly return, we calculate the standard divergence of the monthly returns in each twelvemonth. January returns are so compared to the upper bound of monthly returns at 95 per centum assurance degree to statistically look into the being of the January consequence.

We besides analyse the tendencies in the January consequence by looking at the difference between January returns and mean monthly returns. This difference is besides the January consequence and its secret plan over clip will demo the tendency in absolute value of the January consequence.

DATA, RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

The FTSE 100 index informations for monthly index degrees was obtained from Yahoo finance web site [ 1 ] .

The six companies selected for the survey are

  • British Air passages stand foring transit sector
  • British American Tobacco stand foring consumer goods sector
  • GlaxoSmithKline stand foring pharmaceutical sector
  • Lloyds TSB stand foring banking sector
  • Tesco stand foring nutrient and drug retail merchant sector
  • Vodafone stand foring telecommunication services sector

The month terminal portion monetary values of the above companies were obtained from the web sites of Yahoo Finance [ 2 ] . Appendix I shows the monthly index degrees for FTSE 100 index and monthly portion monetary values of the above six companies.

Appendix II shows the monthly returns for FTSE 100 index and six companies. The monthly returns have been calculated by spliting the month terminal index or portion monetary value by the old month terminal index or portion monetary value.

We now look at the FTSE 100 and six companies’ consequences to look into for the being of the January consequence.

FTSE 100 index

Appendix III shows the consequence for FTSE 100 index. Out of six old ages informations, returns in January were higher than mean monthly returns in three old ages. Sing on norm, January returns shouldn’t be higher than mean monthly returns in 1/12Thursdayof the time-frame in instance of efficient markets, in this instance January returns should non be higher in more than one twelvemonth. The presence of unnatural returns in three out of six old ages indicates the being of the January consequence.

Column F of appendix III shows the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree. Even when comparing returns in January with the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree, we find that January returns were higher in two old ages – 2001 and 2006. This once more proves the being of the January consequence at the market degree.

Chart I shows the tendency in the January consequence. The tendency line is non merely worsening but besides has negative extra returns. This means that there is no January consequence. In fact the investors could do money by shorting index in January as the tendency line lies in the negative district.

Chart I – Trend in the extra returns in January in FTSE 100 index

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But the chart has been distorted by January 2003, clip when US ground forces was poised to assail Iraq. Chart II shows the tendency in the January consequence without 2003. The additive tendency line is still worsening and had a negative reading for the twelvemonth 2006. This indicates that over the past six old ages January consequence has diminished to the extent that it is no longer applicable.

Chart I – Trend in the extra returns in January in FTSE 100 index without twelvemonth 2003

""

The above tendency line indicates that January consequence may non be applicable now. But the short period of this survey – six old ages – can’t be used to do this decision. Besides positive extra return in January 2006 shows that the January consequence may still be applicable.

Regression analysis of extra January returns with volatility in the old twelvemonth

Appendix IV shows the consequences of regressing extra January returns with standard divergence of monthly returns in the old twelvemonth. Standard divergence is used as a step of volatility. Adjusted R square value of 0.45 shows moderate correlativity between the two. Higher volatility in the standard divergence of old twelvemonth monthly returns consequences in lower surplus returns in January.

Consequences and Analysis of Six Individual Companies

British Air passages

Appendix V shows the consequence for British Airways. British Airways shows the strongest presence of the January consequence in this survey with four old ages ( 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2005 ) out of six old ages demoing higher returns in January than mean monthly returns. Besides the extra returns in January over mean monthly returns are high in instance of British Airways with the maximal extra return of 31.1 % recorded in the twelvemonth 2004. The consequences prove the being of the January consequence in a stronger manner than observed for FTSE 100 index.

Column F of appendix V shows the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree. Returns in January were higher in three old ages merely when compared to the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree. Though the figure of old ages with January consequence after leting for statistical fluctuation has come down from 4 to 3, it is still a strong cogent evidence of the being of the January consequence.

British American Tobacco

Appendix VI shows the consequence for British American Tobacco. Merely one twelvemonth ( 2002 ) out of six old ages shows the presence of the January consequence with monthly returns in January higher than the mean monthly returns. Column F of appendix VI shows the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree and once more merely in the twelvemonth 2002 monthly returns in January were higher than the mean monthly returns in that twelvemonth.

Since the January consequence was observed merely in one out of six old ages, statistically British American Tobacco doesn’t show the being of the January consequence.

GlaxoSmithKline

Appendix VII shows the consequence for GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK ) . Merely in one twelvemonth ( 2002 ) monthly returns in January were higher than the mean monthly returns. But the returns in January are lower than the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree which means that the January consequence is non-existent in instance of GSK in any of the old ages.

Lloyds TSB

See appendix VIII for Lloyds TSB consequences. Lloyds TSB strongly shows the presence of the January consequence with four old ages ( 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006 ) out of six old ages demoing higher returns in January than mean monthly returns. But when we take into history volatility in monthly returns into history, merely two old ages ( 2005 and 2006 ) have higher January returns than the upper bound of mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree.

Similarly British Airways, though the figure of old ages with January consequence after leting for volatility in the monthly returns has come down from 4 to 2, Lloyds TSB still shows a strong cogent evidence of the being of the January consequence.

Tesco

See appendix IX for Tesco consequences. Tesco is the lone company in the survey which doesn’t show unnatural January returns in any of the six old ages. In fact Tesco had positive one-year returns in four old ages – 2003 to 2006 but negative monthly returns in January in all the six old ages. Hence there is no grounds of the January consequence in instance of Tesco.

Vodafone

Appendix X covers the consequences for Vodafone. Merely in one twelvemonth ( 2001 ) was the monthly return in January higher than the mean monthly returns in that twelvemonth. As discussed antecedently that being of unnatural returns in January in merely one twelvemonth doesn’t prove the being of the January consequence, therefore Vodafone doesn’t show the January consequence. Besides when we compare January return in 2001 with the upper bound of mean monthly return at 95 % assurance degree, we see that the extra return doesn’t hold statistically. So there is no cogent evidence of the January consequence in instance of Vodafone.

Out of six companies analysed, merely two – British Air passages and Lloyds TSB – show the being of the January consequence. British American Tobacco showed January consequence in merely one twelvemonth whereas other three companies – GSK, Tesco and Vodafone – don’t show any presence of the January consequence at 95 % assurance degree.

When we combine the above six companies, there were merely six annually cases where monthly returns in January were higher than the mean monthly returns at 95 % degree. This means on norm of 1 out of 6 case of the January consequence per company.

On the other manus, market as a whole represented through FTSE 100 index had two old ages – 2001 and 2006 – were January returns were higher than the mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree. This is because single companies may be traveling through specific alterations during January months. Study of specific conditions at the six companies is beyond the range of this survey. FTSE 100 index diversifies the systematic hazard and hence is a better index of the January consequence. The presence of the January consequence in two old ages in FTSE 100 index shows that the January consequence still exists. This is contrary to the premise of strong and semi-strong signifier of market efficiencies which rely on the belief that investors can’t do extra returns by following a tendency.

OTHER Points

  • This survey looks at FTSE 100 index and big market capitalization companies. Similar surveies should besides be carried out for medium and little market capitalization companies to detect the being of the January consequence. It may be possible that the January consequence is now more outstanding in medium and little market capitalization companies. This could be because of lower investor following and more market inefficiencies in those companies. Large cap companies have widespread investor followers and are besides tracked by analysts. Medium and little cap companies have less diverse investor base and their intelligence is non so much publicised. This leads to higher clip in information assimilation and more opportunities of market inefficiencies.

Decision

Markets show ample cases where it is dubious to presume that they have strong or semi-strong efficiency. The consistent above mean return of some investors, the clip taken by portion monetary values to set to intelligence and happening of bubbles and clangs are indexs of weak signifier of market efficiency.

The January consequence is besides proves weak signifier of efficiency as investors have made money by following a tendency which is against the premises of strong and semi-strong signifier of efficiency. This paper looked at the being of the January consequence in UK portion market. We analysed January consequence at the market and single companies’ degree. FTSE 100 index, stand foring the market of big capitalization companies, showed being of the January consequence. Even when monthly returns in January were compared to the upper bound of the mean monthly returns at 95 % assurance degree, FTSE 100 index showed the being of the January consequence. But in the recent old ages, the extra returns have declined and the January consequence tendency line has a negative incline bespeaking that the January consequence is worsening. As the focal point of the survey was to detect the January consequence in recent old ages, the diminution may merely be impermanent. In fact January consequence was once more observed in 2006.

But when we look at single companies, we found that the January consequence was non so prevailing. Merely two out of six companies showed statistically higher returns in January as compared to the mean monthly returns in more than one twelvemonth. One company showed statistically higher returns in January in one twelvemonth merely but this doesn’t turn out the being of the January consequence. The staying three companies didn’t demo statistically higher returns in any of the six old ages. So when we look at single companies’ degree, we don’t see the being of the January consequence. This could be because of specific fortunes at those companies in the six old ages of survey period.

FTSE 100 index is representative of the market and the presence of the January consequence in FTSE 100 index shows that the January consequence still exists. This besides proves that the UK market is non strong or semi-strong signifier of efficiency but merely a instance of weak efficiency.Appendix I – Month terminal values of FTSE 100 index and portion monetary values

Calendar month

FTSE 100

British Air passages

British American Tobacco

GlaxoSmithKline

Harold lloyd

Tesco

Vodafone

Dec-00

6222.5

390.5

509.8

1890.0

708.0

272.8

245.5

Jan-01

6297.5

463.0

493.0

1795.0

700.0

241.0

242.0

Feb-01

5917.9

402.3

556.8

1905.0

656.0

262.5

187.8

Mar-01

5633.7

315.0

519.0

1841.0

691.5

251.0

193.0

Apr-01

5966.9

352.5

567.0

1847.0

726.5

250.0

212.3

May-01

5796.1

366.5

540.0

1912.0

700.0

249.0

181.3

Jun-01

5642.5

344.0

540.0

2000.0

711.5

256.5

157.5

Jul-01

5529.1

343.0

563.0

2027.0

720.5

251.0

153.5

Aug-01

5345

306.0

589.0

1828.0

710.5

260.5

137.5

Sep-01

4903.4

175.0

604.0

1900.0

633.0

251.0

143.8

Oct-01

5039.7

149.0

600.0

1850.0

694.0

242.5

159.0

Nov-01

5203.6

203.5

565.0

1760.0

722.0

240.5

180.0

Dec-01

5217.4

195.0

582.5

1723.0

746.0

249.0

179.8

Jan-02

5164.8

204.5

620.0

1689.0

757.0

234.8

152.3

Feb-02

5101

203.5

649.0

1724.0

680.0

252.0

133.8

Mar-02

5271.8

245.5

681.5

1623.0

712.0

239.0

129.5

Apr-02

5165.6

236.3

702.0

1660.0

789.0

263.0

110.8

May-02

5085.1

203.0

819.0

1404.0

740.0

258.0

103.3

Jun-02

4656.4

186.3

705.0

1418.0

653.0

238.5

90.0

Jul-02

4246.2

160.0

719.0

1243.0

639.5

218.8

97.0

Aug-02

4227.3

152.0

751.0

1216.0

559.0

211.5

103.5

Sep-02

3721.8

96.0

649.0

1230.0

469.5

205.8

81.5

Oct-02

4039.7

132.3

654.0

1220.0

550.0

198.3

102.8

Nov-02

4169.4

165.0

580.0

1203.0

542.5

203.0

122.0

Dec-02

3940.4

135.0

620.5

1192.0

446.0

194.0

113.3

Jan-03

3567.4

114.3

575.0

1144.0

379.0

165.5

109.0

Feb-03

3655.6

104.3

620.0

1116.0

354.0

162.0

113.8

Mar-03

3613.3

104.0

591.5

1113.0

322.0

178.3

113.0

Apr-03

3926

126.5

600.0

1254.0

411.5

198.0

123.5

May-03

4048.1

140.8

655.5

1205.0

447.5

204.3

132.5

Jun-03

4031.2

151.5

687.5

1223.0

430.3

219.3

118.5

Jul-03

4157

172.8

634.0

1192.0

483.0

215.3

118.0

Aug-03

4161.1

187.0

639.0

1207.0

415.0

216.0

115.8

Sep-03

4091.3

166.3

646.5

1249.0

413.8

241.0

120.0

Oct-03

4287.6

208.0

712.5

1262.0

409.3

236.3

123.8

Nov-03

4342.6

228.0

729.5

1311.0

411.0

248.8

133.5

Dec-03

4476.9

232.5

770.0

1280.0

448.0

257.8

138.5

Jan-04

4390.7

305.0

765.0

1180.0

460.0

238.5

137.5

Feb-04

4492.2

316.0

822.0

1121.0

447.8

257.5

134.3

Mar-04

4385.7

276.5

818.5

1068.0

413.5

245.8

128.8

Apr-04

4489.7

282.5

855.0

1167.0

421.5

248.8

137.0

May-04

4430.7

254.3

800.0

1140.0

431.0

249.0

128.3

Jun-04

4464.1

275.5

854.5

1116.0

431.8

266.3

120.8

Jul-04

4413.1

230.8

836.0

1117.0

412.3

254.5

119.3

Aug-04

4459.3

224.0

837.5

1131.0

417.0

266.0

126.3

Sep-04

4570.8

207.5

801.0

1191.0

431.5

285.3

132.3

Oct-04

4624.2

215.3

820.0

1147.0

431.0

287.0

139.5

Nov-04

4703.2

222.0

879.0

1101.0

421.3

301.5

142.0

Dec-04

4814.3

235.0

897.5

1222.0

473.0

321.8

141.3

Jan-05

4852.3

265.8

920.0

1175.0

496.3

308.3

137.0

Feb-05

4968.5

267.5

955.0

1243.0

489.8

305.3

136.3

Mar-05

4894.4

264.0

933.0

1213.0

478.0

316.5

140.5

Apr-05

4801.7

238.0

978.0

1312.0

447.5

308.0

136.3

May-05

4964

274.0

1044.0

1360.0

453.0

313.0

138.8

Jun-05

5113.2

263.5

1076.0

1351.0

473.0

318.8

136.0

Jul-05

5282.3

277.8

1137.0

1341.0

482.0

325.5

146.5

Aug-05

5296.9

277.3

1116.0

1339.0

456.0

326.3

151.8

Sep-05

5477.7

292.8

1191.0

1442.0

467.0

309.5

147.5

Oct-05

5317.3

302.0

1243.0

1469.0

462.0

300.8

148.3

Nov-05

5423.2

312.0

1260.0

1429.0

470.5

303.0

124.8

Dec-05

5618.8

334.0

1300.0

1469.0

488.5

331.5

125.5

Jan-06

5760.3

325.8

1267.0

1438.0

509.5

318.0

118.0

Feb-06

5791.5

328.8

1359.0

1446.0

553.8

338.0

109.0

Mar-06

5964.6

353.3

1394.0

1505.0

550.5

330.0

120.5

Apr-06

6023.1

336.3

1402.0

1556.0

533.5

319.5

129.5

May-06

5723.8

340.5

1338.0

1480.0

503.5

320.5

123.0

Jun-06

5833.4

342.8

1362.0

1511.0

531.5

334.0

115.3

Jul-06

5928.3

387.0

1443.0

1481.0

539.0

359.5

116.3

Aug-06

5906.1

410.8

1440.0

1488.0

521.5

377.3

113.8

Sep-06

5960.8

427.0

1444.0

1422.0

539.5

360.0

122.3

Oct-06

6129.2

459.5

1429.0

1400.0

559.5

393.5

135.0

Nov-06

6048.8

492.8

1439.0

1351.0

540.5

391.3

134.5

Dec-06

6220.8

527.5

1429.0

1344.0

571.5

404.5

141.5

Appendix II – Monthly returns

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Calendar month

FTSE 100 Index

British Air passages

British American Tobacco

GlaxoSmithKline

Harold lloyd

Tesco

Vodafone

Jan-01

1.21 %

18.57 %

-3.29 %

-5.03 %

-1.13 %

-11.64 %

-1.43 %

Feb-01

-6.03 %

-13.12 %

12.93 %

6.13 %

-6.29 %

8.92 %

-22.42 %

Mar-01

-4.80 %

-21.69 %

-6.78 %

-3.36 %

5.41 %

-4.38 %

2.80 %

Apr-01

5.91 %

11.90 %

9.25 %

0.33 %

5.06 %

-0.40 %

9.97 %

May-01

-2.86 %

3.97 %

-4.76 %

3.52 %

-3.65 %

-0.40 %

-14.61 %

Jun-01

-2.65 %

-6.14 %

0.00 %

4.60 %

1.64 %

3.01 %

-13.10 %

Jul-01

-2.01 %

-0.29 %

4.26 %

1.35 %

1.26 %

-2.14 %

-2.54 %

Aug-01

-3.33 %

-10.79 %

4.62 %

-9.82 %

-1.39 %

3.78 %

-10.42 %

Sep-01

-8.26 %

-42.81 %

2.55 %

3.94 %

-10.91 %

-3.65 %

4.55 %

Oct-01

2.78 %

-14.86 %

-0.66 %

-2.63 %

9.64 %

-3.39 %

10.61 %

Nov-01

3.25 %

36.58 %

-5.83 %

-4.86 %

4.03 %

-0.82 %

13.21 %

Dec-01

0.27 %

-4.18 %

3.10 %

-2.10 %

3.32 %

3.53 %

-0.14 %

Jan-02

-1.01 %

4.87 %

6.44 %

-1.97 %

1.47 %

-5.72 %

-15.30 %

Feb-02

-1.24 %

-0.49 %

4.68 %

2.07 %

-10.17 %

7.35 %

-12.15 %

Mar-02

3.35 %

20.64 %

5.01 %

-5.86 %

4.71 %

-5.16 %

-3.18 %

Apr-02

-2.01 %

-3.77 %